Tuesday, January 29, 2008

E-Rex

Hm...he sure looks like some other boyish QB...

The Sun-Times is not known for the best reporting around, but I think they have a few interesting points with their latest story on Grossman. Slezak argues that Grossman has just as much a chance to be as successful as Eli Manning because, hey, they have the same numbers.

"In 57 career regular-season games, Manning has completed 987 passes in 1,805 attempts for a completion rate of 54.7 percent. His average completion has gone for 6.3 yards. He has thrown for 77 touchdowns and has thrown 64 interceptions. His quarterback rating is 73.4.

In 32 games, Grossman has completed 489 passes in 900 attempts for a completion rate of 54.3 percent. His average completion has gone for 6.6 yards. He has thrown for 31 touchdowns and has thrown 33 interceptions. His quarterback rating is 73.4"


Well, the interesting point here is that they do, in fact, have similar numbers. However, we all know that the QB Rating statistic only tells half the story. Since Slezak relies so much on the numbers, I figured I would throw some additional stats into the mix:

In terms of touchdowns, yards, and interceptions, Manning is actually playing WORSE this year than last year. His completion percentage dropped from 57.7 to 56.1, his QB rating dropped from 77.0 to 73.9, and although he has 90 more yards this season, he has one less TD and two more INT. So, in terms of sheer numbers, Manning hasn't done any "magical turnaround" this year that somehow makes him good. He's playing par for the course. In fact, Manning has never had a terrible year -- he's been a solid 20 TD, 18 INT guy who will get you 3,300+ yards in any given season.

And Grossman?

Even if you double Grossman's career stats (which is essentially just the 2006 season which was his best), he comes up with 62 TD and 66 INT -- not exactly mindblowing stuff. And why should we assume that Grossman needs to be spotted some games, anyways? Grossman has been in the NFL for one year MORE than Manning, and has managed to compile only half the statistics! Not only that, but Rex has only managed one full season (the 2006 campaign, of course), and was as streaky as can be. 3 TD performances were followed by 4 INT performances without warning. With Manning, he went through a slump for a month where you knew he didn't have his best stuff. With Rex, it could strike without warning -- consistency is a big deal in this league. Throw in the injury risk (Grossman should throw simulated games with Wood and Prior), and you have a QB who needs to be on the way out.

Oh, and for all you Grossman apologists, consider this: Eli Manning had to deal with a crippled WR1 (Burress), an injured TE who missed a good chunk of the season (Shockey), and a fair share of hurt RBs (Jacobs, Ward, Droughns and Bradshaw, just to name a few). Grossman had roughly the same supporting cast as Orton or Griese and still managed to fail miserably in comparison.

I like Rex -- I really do. But he's not in a position to become some kind of developing player. He's not a kid anymore. If we're going to play with a developing QB, it should be Orton (who has amassed a better winning percentage than Grossman, not to mention is much younger), or we should draft someone. Let someone else throw it downfield for a change.

1 comment:

Yisroel said...

I'd have to disagree with you strongly on this whole article, Jeff.
First of all, Rex Grossman is the only hope that this Bears team has in the future. Kyle Orton is, at best, a solid backup and don't even think about defending him with the games he had against Green Bay and New Orleans. Let's see how he performs in a game that really matters (i.e. a non garbage time game at the end of the season). I'm not saying that Orton sucks, but about the only thing that he did that turned my head was the long pass to Devin Hester for a TD against New Orleans. Other than that, he still showed the tendency to throw the ball to other zipcodes, miss seeing that Muhsin Muhammed was open in the middle for an easy first down catch every now and then, and, most importantly, his failure to figure out how to the simple things (like doing a clean shave and not looking like the Big Lebowski).

Brian Griese is a solid QB as well, despite what you might think. He was extremely clutch in the first four games that he QB'd if you'll recall. He almost pulled off an amazing comeback against the Vikings in one of his first games.
He beat the (at the time) undefeated Packers by throwing a huge TD late in the fourth quarter.
He led us to a game winning drive against the philadelphia eagles as well. And did one hell of a job against the Lions in his first game as a QB. The problem with him is that he's not a long term solution to the Bear's QB problem. He's only good for a year or two.

Eli Manning is still a very inconsistent QB. Remember that 4 INT game against Minnesota that led to three interception returns for TDs for Minnesota? That was after a game against the Lions, where he had a qb rating of 100 for the game. Not to mention, in the last two games of the season, he had QB ratings of 32 and 118. Wanna explain that one to me? The fact is that he's not consistent. He has a terrible completion percentage every season. And btw, you wanna say that he didn't have a good supporting cast?! I don't care if Plaxico was banged up or not. The fact that he had good numbers doesn't prove how good Eli is. It proves how good Plaxico is when he wants to play. Furthermore, Brandon Jacobs is a manbeast who would eat Mike Tyson and your children for breakfast. He's, pound for pound, the toughest
player out there. When you see him run, it's like watching a player from NFL Blitz who's on fire and can't be tackled by even two guys.
Derrick Ward was pretty damn good when he played as well. Did they have injury problems? Yes. But the bottom line is that Eli Manning always had a good running game going, because there was always at least one of them being healthy.
What did Rex Grossman have to work with? Receivers who drop more balls than they catch. Running backs who can't even average 3 yards a carry. And an offensive coordinator who has his head up his ass. Don't tell me for one second that Rex has a similar situation to Eli Manning. I'm not even gonna talk about the fact that he always had a damn good RB behind him for his first three years with Tiki Barber.

Rex Grossman has had more INTs than TDs. Rex is a young gunslinger who loves to take chances down field. Rex is kid that has a lot of potential but hasn't been given a lot of time to show what he can do.
Sound familiar to anybody? How about Brett Favre? He threw an equal amount of TDS to INTs in his first two full seasons. He loved to throw the ball down field. He showed a lot of potential. Also, Peyton Manning threw more INTs than TDs in his first full season. Grossman threw more TDs than INTs.
The bottom line is that you gotta kids time to grow. Remember, we got to the Super Bowl because of him, not despite him. Don't bullshit me and say that Kyle Orton would've done the same or better. You know damn that he wouldn't have. Rex rocks. The end.