Tuesday, January 29, 2008
The Sun-Times is not known for the best reporting around, but I think they have a few interesting points with their latest story on Grossman. Slezak argues that Grossman has just as much a chance to be as successful as Eli Manning because, hey, they have the same numbers.
"In 57 career regular-season games, Manning has completed 987 passes in 1,805 attempts for a completion rate of 54.7 percent. His average completion has gone for 6.3 yards. He has thrown for 77 touchdowns and has thrown 64 interceptions. His quarterback rating is 73.4.
In 32 games, Grossman has completed 489 passes in 900 attempts for a completion rate of 54.3 percent. His average completion has gone for 6.6 yards. He has thrown for 31 touchdowns and has thrown 33 interceptions. His quarterback rating is 73.4"
Well, the interesting point here is that they do, in fact, have similar numbers. However, we all know that the QB Rating statistic only tells half the story. Since Slezak relies so much on the numbers, I figured I would throw some additional stats into the mix:
In terms of touchdowns, yards, and interceptions, Manning is actually playing WORSE this year than last year. His completion percentage dropped from 57.7 to 56.1, his QB rating dropped from 77.0 to 73.9, and although he has 90 more yards this season, he has one less TD and two more INT. So, in terms of sheer numbers, Manning hasn't done any "magical turnaround" this year that somehow makes him good. He's playing par for the course. In fact, Manning has never had a terrible year -- he's been a solid 20 TD, 18 INT guy who will get you 3,300+ yards in any given season.
Even if you double Grossman's career stats (which is essentially just the 2006 season which was his best), he comes up with 62 TD and 66 INT -- not exactly mindblowing stuff. And why should we assume that Grossman needs to be spotted some games, anyways? Grossman has been in the NFL for one year MORE than Manning, and has managed to compile only half the statistics! Not only that, but Rex has only managed one full season (the 2006 campaign, of course), and was as streaky as can be. 3 TD performances were followed by 4 INT performances without warning. With Manning, he went through a slump for a month where you knew he didn't have his best stuff. With Rex, it could strike without warning -- consistency is a big deal in this league. Throw in the injury risk (Grossman should throw simulated games with Wood and Prior), and you have a QB who needs to be on the way out.
Oh, and for all you Grossman apologists, consider this: Eli Manning had to deal with a crippled WR1 (Burress), an injured TE who missed a good chunk of the season (Shockey), and a fair share of hurt RBs (Jacobs, Ward, Droughns and Bradshaw, just to name a few). Grossman had roughly the same supporting cast as Orton or Griese and still managed to fail miserably in comparison.
I like Rex -- I really do. But he's not in a position to become some kind of developing player. He's not a kid anymore. If we're going to play with a developing QB, it should be Orton (who has amassed a better winning percentage than Grossman, not to mention is much younger), or we should draft someone. Let someone else throw it downfield for a change.